A customer stands in a supermarket in the fruit and vegetable department. (picture alliance/dpa)
Following a lull last autumn, consumers in Germany are once again optimistic: The Nuremberg-based market research institute GfK is forecasting real growth in private consumer spending of 1 percent for 2020. In its consumer climate study for February, GfK announced on Wednesday in Nuremberg that people's income expectations and propensity to make purchases had improved. The propensity to consume is expected to reach a 12-month high in February.
"An initial agreement in the trade dispute between the US and China is also providing relief in Germany," said GfK consumer expert Rolf Bürkl. "The positive start to the consumer climate in 2020 reinforces our assessment that private consumption will again be an important pillar of the German economy this year," he said. In the previous month, the fear of penalty interest rates in particular had still weighed heavily on the consumer climate.
For the rest of the year, he said, the way in which the social partners act in the upcoming collective bargaining negotiations will be a decisive factor. "The trade unions are probably most concerned about job security," said Bürkl. In the automotive industry, the focus will be on making the switch to electric mobility without radical cuts if possible. "It is relatively undisputed that jobs will be cut," said Bürkl. The speed at which that occurs will be important for the consumer climate.
GfK is assuming economic growth of 1.0% in Germany in the current year. According to the information currently available, economic output in Germany grew by 0.6% in 2019.
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