MILAN, Jul 4 (Class Editori) -- If customs were abolished among most countries on the Black Continent, the GDP of Africa could increase from 1 to 3%. African states want to trade with each other more advantageously. That's the meaning of the free trade agreement established in March 2018 under the auspices of the African Union (EU), based on the observation that today only 15% of the goods traded on the African continent are among the various African states. This result ranks Africa far below Asia (61%) and Europe (67%).
According to the UNCTAD, within the next five years, intra-African trade could reach 52% through the implementation of the free trade treaty and the elimination of customs among the African states of the common market. The forecast of Cnuced may be optimistic and will depend on the precise rules of the Zlecaf (acronym of African continental free trade area) and on the actions undertaken by the States to support the development of the infrastructures and make the commercial framework more attractive, eliminating the two most critical obstacles in Africa.
The African continental free trade zone, Zlecaf, currently counts on 52 out of 55 states members of the Ua, and 24 ratifications. Two more than the minimum threshold of 22, reached in May, for the operational launch that will be confirmed at the next African Union summit on July, 7 in Niameu, Niger.
To date, Nigeria, which accounts for the continent's gross economic weight, is still missing. Despite favorable statements by the Nigerian finance minister, the government has not yet signed under the pressure of powerful national lobbies that fear the loss of market share.
Negotiations will focus on tariff barriers with the aim of liberalizing 90% of duties. 10% can be maintained on some sensitive and regulated products. According to UNCTAD economist Milasoa Cherel-Robson, this aim refers to the key point of the orignal rules, who made it the central theme of his report.
Regarding the original rules, it is necessary to clarify the criteria with which to define an African product which, for this reason, has the right to be protected from preferential duties. On the subject, UNCTAD suggests the adoption of flexible rules with the dual objective of stimulating import-export and accelerating the industrialization of the continent, which is today too limited. An important issue if we consider the American agreement that allows privileged access to «Made in Africa». Accordin to UNCTAD, the risk is to put too stringent rules and to put in place industrial protectionism since the African continent still depends very much on importing inputs.
The attraction of investors to develop intra-African industrial chains is at stake. Opportunities are not lacking, especially in the agricultural sector. If, for example, 75% of raw cocoa comes from Africa (65% from the Ivory Coast and Ghana) is then transformed mostly outside the black continent. Another example concerns the textile supply chain, with the best cotton coming from West Africa (Burkina Faso, Mali, Bénin) while textile production and design are very dynamic in the East.
The UNCTAD report also mentions the automotive industry, which is little present in the continent, which could become competitive and allow some countries to integrate the value chain. In these projects Italy could play an important role, qualifying, for example, the southern ports, in particular those of Sicily, as a transhipping hub for the flows of goods coming from the East directed to the countries of the southern Mediterranean coast.
It is not difficult to picture that in the nascent automotive industry in North Africa, most of the components could come from Europe or Asia, via the Suez Canal, to then be assembled in the product's outlet markets.
An encouraging sign on the attractiveness of Africa is the increase registered by the UNCTAD on the rate of foreign direct investments, which increased by 11% last year while was stagnant worldwide.
(Source:Class Editori)
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