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Economic barometers show stronger recovery momentum of Chinese economy

March 23, 2023


Abstract : The Chinese economy continues to rebound with a stronger growth momentum, as recently-released economic barometer data regarding electricity consumption, social financing increment, logistics prosperity and others shows a positive trend.

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Aerial photo taken on Jan. 26, 2022 shows cargo vessels at Rizhao Port in Rizhao, east China's Shandong Province. (Xinhua/Guo Xulei)

BEIJING, March 23 (Xinhua) -- The Chinese economy continues to rebound with a stronger growth momentum, as recently-released data regarding electricity consumption, social financing increment, logistics prosperity and other economic barometers shows a positive trend.

-- Industrial production resumes at a faster speed

Electricity consumption is a barometer of economic growth, as well as a crucial leading indicator of economic trends.

According to the latest data released by the National Energy Administration, in February this year, China consumed 695 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) of electricity, up 11 percent year on year, with the primary industry, the secondary industry and the tertiary industry consuming 8.4 billion kWh, 452.3 billion kWh and 123.5 billion kWh, up 8.6 percent, 19.7 percent and 4.4 percent year on year, respectively.

The electricity consumption by the second industry increased fast, indicating the accelerated recovery of industrial production, said Wu Sa, deputy head of the Institute of Economic Research with the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research.

The steady rise in electricity consumption in China's south also reflects the faster recovery in industrial production. The latest data from China Southern Power Grid Co., Ltd. showed that in February, the power consumption of the nine high-tech and equipment manufacturing industries in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region and Guangdong, Yunnan, Guizhou and Hainan provinces rose by 33.6 percent year on year.

Data from China Southern Power Grid also showed that electricity consumed by new industries and industries featuring new business forms and models in the above-mentioned five regions increased by 46.8 percent year on year. Electricity consumption in new energy-related industries saw particularly strong growth.

According to experts, the overall and regional electricity consumption reflects continuous and positive recovery of China's industrial production, as well as positive results in the industrial structure adjustment.

-- Financing needs of the real economy pick up

Social financing increment is a barometer reflecting the financing needs of the real economy, and also a forward-looking indicator of economic trends.

Data recently released by the People's Bank of China showed that in February, the social financing increased by 3.16 trillion yuan, 1.95 trillion yuan more from the same period of 2022, hitting a record high. The yuan-denominated loans granted to the real economy grew by 1.82 trillion yuan, an increase of 924.1 billion yuan year on year.

The increase in social financing reflects the recovery of the financing demand in the real economy, the overall improvement of corporate credit environment and a positive expectation for economic outlook, noted Zhou Maohua, a researcher with China Everbright Bank.

Supported by positive factors like ensuring supporting credit for infrastructure projects with policy-oriented and development-oriented financial tools, increasing special re-lending for equipment renovation and meeting the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises, the credit supply is expected to maintain expansion in the coming months, stated Pang Ming, chief economist with Jones Lang LaSalle Greater China.

It is expected that the new yuan-denominated loans in March will maintain a small year-on-year increase, and start to move into a relatively normal rhythm in the second quarter, so as to create a suitable financing environment for stable and sustainable economic growth, said Wen Bin, chief economist with China Minsheng Bank.

-- Production and consumption recovery expedites

Likewise, logistics data, as a leading indicator, gauges the performance of production and consumer markets in the macroeconomy.

Data recently-released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing (CFLP) showed that China's logistics prosperity index stood at 50.1 percent in February, up 5.4 percentage points from January.

The rise in the index is mainly attributable to the recovery of the supply and demand sides and the increase in production capacity, believed He Hui, chief economic manager with CFLP, noting that the index is expected to continue a steady recovery driven by policies and measures to stabilize the economy and positive expectations of enterprises for development recovery in the future.

Data showed that since late February, the number of export containers has also continued to grow, showing a sound recovery trend in foreign trade.

The continuous growth of export containers has also responded to the recent media concern about the accumulation of empty containers at ports, which, according to Yu Jianhua, head of the General Administration of Customs, is mainly due to the excessive put-in volume of new containers in the previous period, the low domestic storage cost, and the short-term mass return of empty containers after the relief of the epidemic situation abroad, as well as seasonal rules.

While supply and demand in the production market are recovering, the consumer market is also showing vigorous vitality.

The latest data from the State Post Bureau showed that in February, the postal industry delivered 11.57 billion items, up 27.8 percent year on year. The volume of express delivery was 9.18 billion, up 32.8 percent year on year. China Post Group Corporation delivered 2.39 billion items, up 11.8 percent year on year.

Industry insiders believe that the growing volume of express delivery not only shows the strong development momentum of the courier sector, but also indicates an accelerated recovery in the Chinese consumer market and a sound economic recovery momentum.

(Edited by Gu Shanshan with Xinhua Silk Road, gushanshan.1987@163.com)

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Keyword: Chinese economy

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