BEIJING, March 18(Xinhua) --China's economy is in the process of recovery on the whole with major economic indicators showing substantial year-on-year growth in this January and February, maintaining the momentum of sustained and steady recovery.
How to accurately interpret the economic data at the beginning of the year? Liu Aihua, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), gave an interpretation at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office.
-- The economy is in the process of recovery on the whole, providing favorable conditions for maintaining overall steady employment
In order to figure out the economic performance more objectively and accurately, NBS compared the data of this January and February with that of the same period in 2020 and 2019 respectively, and introduced a new indicator "two-year average growth rate", which refers to the growth rate calculated by the geometric average method based on the corresponding period in 2019.
Affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, there were slumps in the year-on-year growth in all major indicatorslast year. "We tried to deduct the impact of low base by calculating the two-year average growth rate," according to the spokesperson.
Photo taken on Nov. 3, 2020 shows the view of the Lujiazui area of Pudong, east China's Shanghai. (Xinhua/Ding Ting)
Industrial production could be taken for example. In this January and February, the year-on-year growth of added value of industrial enterprises above designated size has been 35.1 percent. After deduction of the impact of the low base, the average year-on-year growth rate of added value of industrial enterprises above designated size of last year and this year is estimated to be only 8.1 percent. "By the same method, based on the two-year average growth rate, the production index of the service sector increased by 6.8 percent, the fixed asset investment grew by 1.7 percent, while the total retail sales of consumer goods rose by 3.2 percent. Judging from these figures, the economy is in the process of recovery in general."
In this January and February, 1.48 million new urban jobs were created. "In 2021, with the sustainability of the epidemic prevention and control effect, the service sector will show a restorative development. Under this trend, the service sector will play a better role as a reservoir of employment," said the spokesman.
-- With consumption potential unreleased, the consumer market is expected to continue the momentum of steady recovery
Affected by the low base of the same period, in this January and February, the consumer market has grown at a high year-on-year rate. Specifically, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 33.8 percent year on year, which was 34.3 percent in real terms. Compared with those in January and February of 2019, the total retail sales of consumer goods rose by 6.4 percent. Judging from the two-year average growth rate of 3.2 percent, the consumer market is still in the process of restorative growth.
"At the beginning of this year, cluster epidemics occurred in some areas, which had a significant impact on some consumer sectors in the short term," said Zhang Min, statistician of Department of Trade and Foreign Economic Analysis of NBS.
Consumption upgrading goods have grown rapidly, with part of overseas consumption backflow. In this January and February, the retail sales of cosmetics above quota, gold-silver jewelries and daily necessities increased by more than 30 percent year on year. By the two-year average growth rate, the retail sales of cosmetics above quota and gold-silver jewelries grew by 9.9 percent and 8.2 percent respectively, while that of daily necessities including watches, bags and suitcases increased by 12.1 percent.
Online retails have maintained a rapid growth, while physical stores have also showed a recovery growth. In this January and February, the online retail sales of physical goods grew by an average of 16 percent year on year, and the retail sales of physical stores above designated size rose by 4.1 percent. While online retails maintained a rapid growth, physical stores also gradually showed a restorative growth in the context of effective prevention and control of the epidemic.
"In the next stage, against the backdrop of accelerating the formation of a strong domestic market and the construction of a new development pattern, the consumer market is expected to show a steady recovery along with the sustainability of pro-consumption policies," said Zhang Min.
-- Though it takestime for recovery of manufacturing investment, China's economy has good foundation and conditions to maintain sustained recovery
In this January and February, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by an average of 1.7 percent year on year. Specifically, investment in high-tech industries increased by 50.1 percent year on year, with a two-year average growth rate of 11.0 percent. Investment in the social sector rose by 48.0 percent year on year, with a two-year average growth rate of 8.8 percent, both showing rapid growth.
However, the two-year average growth rate of manufacturing investment decreased by 3.4 percent, indicating slow recovery. "Manufacturing investment has been affected by a variety of factors, such as recovery of enterprises' capability and confidence in investment. Although the epidemic is under effective control, there is still pressure in epidemic prevent and control, with a complex and grim external environment. Therefore, it may take some time for manufacturing investment to recover," said the spokesman.
Guo Liyan, researcher of Market and Price Research Institute of Academy of Macroeconomic Research, believed that under the new development pattern, the supply side and the demand side are not independent of each other, but shall establish a mutually leading and driving supply-demand relationship for spiral escalation and reach a dynamic balance at a higher level, so as to form a strong domestic market. In fact, the process of spiral escalation contains opportunities for investment in manufacturing.
(Edited by Bao Nuomin with Xinhua Silk Road, baonuomin@xinhua.org)
A single purchase
