InfoQuest (August 18, 2020) - Thailand's GDP was down 12.2 percent in the second quarter and fell 6.9 percent in the first half, according to Thosaporn Sirisumphand, Secretary General of National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC).
The data reflects a deterioration of business activity, with the nation's key drivers of trade and tourism remaining hobbled by the global coronavirus pandemic. The NESDC cut its full-year forecast to a 7.3 percent-7.8 percent contraction, from an earlier estimate of a 5 percent-6 percent fall.
It is estimated that the 2020 global economy will decline by 4.5 percent, the average price of Dubai crude oil is USD43/barrel, and the baht will be trading around 31.3 baht per US dollar. Exports dropped by 10 percent and foreign tourist numbers in Thailand slumped to 6.7 million, resulting in 31 million baht revenue. The NESDC adjusted the estimated GDP based on the above forecast data.
"The worst of the economic slump caused by COVID-19 might be over. But with exports and tourism still missing in action, the negative GDP growth trend is here to stay for the rest of the year and related to the trend of Sino-US trade," said Mr. Thosaporn.
The NESDC said the revision was mainly because of the sharp decline in the number and revenue from foreign tourists, the severe global economic recession, the impact of the pandemic and the drought.
Mr. Thosaporn added, recent anti-government protests were also a factor threating the economy adding to the risks, close attention was required for related situations, and Thailand's economy may be recovered in the second half in case of the COVID-19 vaccine succeeded.
The NESDC urges the government to lift lockdown measures, drive state-owned business, make proper adjustment for H2 global economy and turn to profitable commodities. Policy management for the remainder of 2020 should also emphasize measures for COVID-19 prevention and control and maintain the domestic political stability, together with macroeconomic policy implementation covering coordination of monetary policy and fiscal policy to support economic recovery, said NESDC.
Source: InfoQuest, by Kasamarporn Kittisamphan / Rachada / Sasithorn, translated by Xinhua Silk Road
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