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BoCom forecasts China's GDP to grow 9 pct in 2021

December 11, 2020


Abstract : China's GDP growth is likely to expand 9 percent in 2021, much faster than global economic growth, according to a latest report released by the financial research center of the Bank of Communications (BoCom) on Thursday.

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BEIJING, Dec. 11 (Xinhua) -- China's GDP growth is likely to expand 9 percent in 2021, much faster than global economic growth, according to a latest report released by the financial research center of the Bank of Communications (BoCom) on Thursday. 

Affected by the base effect in 2020, China's economy is likely to grow 15 percent in the first quarter of 2021, pull back gradually after the second quarter, and return to normal in the fourth quarter, said the report. 

The economic structure will continue to improve. It is expected that consumption will contribute more than 60 percent to the economic growth, while investment's contribution will decline to some extent.

As the epidemic has been brought under control, a significant rebound in consumption in 2021 can be expected, with the growth rate likely to reach 13 percent.

In terms of investment, three major types of investment will see their growth rates all post gains. In a breakdown, manufacturing investment growth will increase significantly; infrastructure investment will see a moderate growth; real estate investment growth will not weaken significantly. Generally speaking, the fixed asset investment will increase by 8 percent in 2021, according to the report. 

As for exports, overseas countries are still dependent on China's exports in the short term. Hence, China's exports will not drop sharply in the first half of 2021. With the gradual recovery of overseas production capacity and the expected appreciation of the renminbi (RMB), China's export growth is likely to weaken in the second half of next year. The U.S. dollar-denominated export value in China is likely to reach 6 percent in 2021. (Edited by Zhang Yuan with Xinhua Silk Road, zhangyuan11@xinhua.org)

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Keyword: economic growth

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