The planned expansion of district heating networks in Germany could prove to be far more expensive than previously thought, a new study has warned.
The Prognos research group estimates that if Germany is to achieve its climate targets, investments of up to €43.5 billion ($47.4 billion) will be required by 2030, up from a 2020 projection of €10.6 billion.
The study, jointly commissioned by the AGFW district heating association and the German Association of Local Public Utilities, was published this week.
German municipalities are currently drawing up heating plans, deciding whether private households should be connected to district heating networks or be required to provide emission-free heating themselves, for example with heat pumps.
The German government has set a target of drawing 50% of the district heating supply from renewable sources.
In the medium term, at least 100,000 new buildings per year are set to be connected to the grid; by 2045, an extra 3.6 million residential buildings with 14 million residences are due to be heated and supplied with hot water via district heating.
The two associations called for annual investments of €3 billion, rising to €3.4 billion by the mid-2030s.
Federal funding for district heating currently stands at €3.5 billion by 2028, which the groups say is "nowhere near enough for the district heating sector to reach climate targets."
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