BEIJING, Dec. 31 (Xinhua) -- China's economy stood the huge test and witnessed a trend of rapid recovery in the face of unprecedented COVID-19 impact and more complex internal and external environment in 2020.
According to industry insiders, China's economy is likely to show a sustained and accelerated recovery in 2021.
In 2021, it is expected that the growth rate of retail sales of consumer goods will rebound to around 12 percent, the investment growth rate will pick up to about 10 percent, the export growth rate will maintain at around 5 percent, and the GDP growth rate will attain about 8 percent.
In a word, a significant recovery of economic growth becomes the consensus of industry insiders.
-- Consumption: Increased confidence with big rebound
Industry insiders believed that under the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, consumer confidence will further increase, and offline consumption potential will be released in 2021. In brief, consumption is expected to pick up continuously and become the main driver of economic recovery.
According to Fu Linghui, spokesman of National Bureau of Statistics, as the economy gradually returns to normal operation, consumption will remain the stabilizer of the country's economic growth.
Zhu Baoliang, chief economist of the State Information Center, expects that retail sales of consumer goods may see itsgrowth rebound to about 12 percent in 2021.
The recovery of income of residents and enterprises will trigger an endogenous repair in demands and an improvement in consumer confidence in 2021, said Hua Changchun, Chief Economist of Guotai Junan Securities, adding that the resonance of overseas supply substitution and consumer demand repair will also boost relevant consumption industries.
Hua predicted that the annual growth of retail sales of consumer goods will reach around 14 percent in 2021.
Favorable policies have been released to consolidate the momentum of sustained consumption recovery. Recently, the Ministry of Commerce recently made it clear that it, together with relevant departments and local governments, will carry out a series of consumption promotion work to improve the market system and create a good consumption environment.
-- Investment: Large space with solid foundation
Fixed asset investment, as one of the driving forces for economic growth, will have an enormous space for development in 2021.
In the first three quarters of 2020, the total planned investment in new construction projects increased by 14.6 percent year on year, indicating a large space for investment in 2021, said Zhu Baoliang. He expected an investment growth of about 10 percent in 2021.
Investments in real estate and infrastructure will remain stable. According to Zhu Baoliang, the special bonds of local governments, the general debt budget for infrastructure investment expenditure of local governments and the investment capital within central budget has totaled more than 5.35 trillion yuan in 2020, increasing by at least 1.67 trillion yuan compared with that in the previous year, which, plus the higher proportion of special bonds for project capital, led to a substantial increase in infrastructure investment capital sources.
Hua believed that the manufacturing industry will enter a new cycle in 2021 under the resonance of domestic and overseas demand recovery.
Based on the latest report released by International auditing firm KPMG, manufacturing investment, especially high-tech manufacturing investment driven by industrial upgrading, will carry on the rapid growth and become a key driver of investment.
--Exports: Stronger-than-expected growth with powerful resilience
The factors affecting the stronger-than-expected growth of exports in 2020 will continue to exist in 2021, said Zhu.
In 2021, worldwide consumer confidence will continue to increase, with a faster recovery on the demand side than the supply side. In 2021, China's exports are expected to grow by about 5 percent year on year.
According to Hua, exports will perform well in the first half of 2021, and may fall slightly in the second half but remain resilient. The annual export growth is expected to be at about 7 percent.
Despite of severe challenges brought by COVID-19 pandemic, the stronger-than-expected growth of exports suggests China's powerful economic resilience and comprehensive competitiveness.
Kang Yong, chief economist of KPMG China, expressed that with the pandemic now widespread in many countries, the gap will remain existing between production and demand in overseas markets. Accordingly, China's exports are expected to maintain a high growth in the first half of 2021.
-- GDP: Strong Momentum with accelerated growth
A significant recovery in economic growth in 2021 has become the consensus of industry insiders.
Fu said recently that China's economy has a lot of favorable factors in operation and is more likely to gradually return to the potential growth level in 2021. He noted that due to the low base in 2020, the economy may grow faster in 2021.
According to Zhu, the lagged effect of China's macro-control policies released in 2020 will continue to drive the economic recovery in 2021. China's economy is expected to grow by around 8 percent in 2021, with a double-digit growth in the first quarter.
The economic recovery will enter the second stage in 2021, said Pan Xiangdong, Chief economist of New Times Securities, adding that resident income has grown faster than consumption on implementation of previous policy and export stimulu.
Pan also pointed out that with the economy recovery, residents will be more inclined to consume and may accelerate spending, and meanwhile, with great demands, enterprises will witness a faster earnings growth, improved production and operation expectations as well as increased capital expenditure, which implies a stronger endogenous economic growth in 2021. (Edited by Yang Yifan with Xinhua Silk Road, yangyifan@xinhua.org)
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