Following the deep recession caused by the coronavirus pandemic, many industry associations expect strong growth next year. However, the German Economic Institute (IW/Cologne), which is close to employers, estimates that not all sectors will see sufficient growth to return to pre-crisis levels.
"The production potential in industry and also in the service sector is likely to remain significantly underutilized in many cases in 2021 as well," writes the IW on the basis of a survey of trade associations published on Tuesday. In some areas, economic output will not return to pre-coronavirus levels until 2022.
"We have reached the lowest point," IW Director Michael Hüther told dpa in Frankfurt. "There should already be a positive development in the third quarter. But it will still be very difficult in the second half of 2020."
The IW regularly asks industry associations about their production expectations, employment prospects and investment plans. A total of 31 associations - from heavy industry, the construction industry and the service sector - took part in the current special survey on the coronavirus crisis.
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