The cost-benefit analysis commissioned by the Ministry of Transport rejects the Turin-Lyon connection. However, a report by the French Senate highlights the significance of the rail route to favor intermodality during transports along the Belt and Road, and to outdo the Duisburg competition.
Italy - or at least the Five Star Movement - and France have conflicted opinions on the Turin-Lyon high-speed line. The cost-benefit analysis drawn up by the experts of the Ministry of Transport, led by Marco Ponti, generated results which were plainly defined "merciless" by the same Minister Danilo Toninelli.
The study takes into account two scenarios, estimating the profitability both in reference to the full cost and to costs to complete. The first analysis considers the assessment made by the Turin-Lyon Observatory in 2011. Based on this scenario, the difference between costs incurred and benefits is negative for 7.8 billion on costs to complete and for 8.7 billion at full cost. In the second scenario, which is considered to be realistic, the profitability of the work is in negative for 7-8 billion. These figures also affect the mini-Tav option, which will encompass the realization of the work without the Avigliana-Orbassano route.
The authors define the environmental benefits of the work as almost negligible. During the day the amounts of possible penalties were discussed. In the technical-legal report attached to the study, estimates of the maximum cost including penalties and redemptions, adding the amounts provided in the document, arrive at the "unlikely to be reached" limit of 4,2 billion. Simultaneously, a clarification on "a macroscopic mistake" made in the analysis arrived from Mit. The percentage between 10% and 30% as compensation for the termination of contracts should not in fact be compared to the total cost, but only to existing contracts, and then to 1.3 billion, instead of 9.9 billion. This is why the cost of abandoning the infrastructure would amount to 1.7 billion at most.
On the other hand Paris, considers the infrastructure to be strategic within the Belt and Road Initiative connections. A report by the French Senate on opportunities and risks along the new Silk Road emphasizes the need to favor intermodality and the connection between the French and European railway networks and "in particular of the creation of the Tav line" between Italy and France. Since other cities of the continent, such as Duisburg in Germany, are seeking to become the railway hubs for the arrival and departure of goods to and from China, the connection between Turin and Paris is of primary importance, as reported by the study. It should be noted that in sixteen years time the first wagon of the Wuhan and Lyon route covered 11 thousand kilometers in only 15 days. The goal now is to ensure that the wagons leave full for China.
(Source:Class Editori)
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