BEIJING, Jan. 3 (Xinhua) -- China's economy in 2018 will maintain stable and the growth is likely to stand at around 6.7 percent, according to forecast made by many economic thinktanks in the country.
A blueprint recently released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), predicts that China's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2017 will be around 6.8 percent, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous year , while its economic growth in 2018 will likely reach 6.7 percent.
Investigations conducted by the Institute of Industrial Economics of CASS show that the economists' confidence in the future foreign trade growth has recovered. 45 percent of economists surveyed believe that China's exports in the fourth quarter of 2017 will see a year-on-year rise, while 18 percent forecast a year-on-year decline in exports and the remaining believe exports to remain unchanged.
Institute for Advanced Research of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics (SUFE) also forecast about 6.7 percent for China's economic growth.
Meanwhile, the International Finance Research Institute of the Bank of China also expected China's economic growth in 2018 to reach about 6.7 percent and pointed out that the country will pay more attention to quality and efficiency, while promoting the stable economic growth.
According to the National Academy of Development and Strategy of Renmin University of China, China's macro economy will maintain the relatively stable development momentum in 2018 with the GDP growth at 6.7 percent.
It is reported that in 2017, the global economy saw a steady recovery on the whole. In particular, the developed countries and regions including the Europe, the USA and Japan saw the better-than-expected economic recovery, showing the improvement in China's external demands.
In the meantime, under the economic new normal, China quickened the pace to adjust economic structure and gained the new driving forces for economic growth, with better-than-expected fiscal revenue and more positive fiscal policies.
However, on the other hand, from the perspective of the supply-side, China's labor supply has seen a decline year by year since the inflection in 2012. In recent years, the total factor productivity growth (TFPG) has maintained the low level and the capital stock growth has also fallen along with the fall in the fixed asset investment growth.
Despite achievements in the supply-side structural reform at present, the problem of traditional industries with excess capacities has not been fundamentally resolved. In addition, issues related to the real estate and local government debt remained unsolved, said Zhu Baoliang, chief economist of the State Information Center. (Edited by Hu Pingchao, hupingchao@xinhua.org)
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