Photo taken with a mobile phone shows sunset glow in Beijing, capital of China, Sept. 16, 2021. (Xinhua/Li Jing)
BEIJING, Dec. 9 (Xinhua) -- The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) released its annual blue book of China's economy on Monday, saying that China's GDP growth in 2021 is expected to hit eight percent, beating the country's GDP target and surpassing most economies in the world.
According to Xie Fuzhan, president of CASS and editor-in-chief of the blue book, China's economy has shown several bright spots this year.
China has seen deepened reform and opening-up and rapid growth of foreign trade, thanks to a slew of measures adopted during the year.
The role of scientific and technological innovation has been enhanced in the country, with its ranking in WIPO's Global Innovation Index moving up to the 12th place.
Energy conservation and carbon reduction have been highlighted in key industries and sectors amid a green transition, as the country pushes forward with plan to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060.
Other Chinese research institutions and international financial institutions echoed with CASS, also expressing optimistic sentiment on China's economic outlook.
A man looks at exhibits while visiting the first BEYOND International Technology Innovation Expo in south China's Macao, Dec. 2, 2021. (Xinhua/Cheong Kam Ka)
-- Recovery amid pandemic
"While most countries around the world are still struggling with the pandemic and recession, China's economy has almost returned to the normal track before the pandemic. China's supply chain has played a key role as a large gap in supply chain could hold back the global recovery in demand," said Zhang Jun, chief economist at Morgan Stanley Securities.
China's foreign trade maintained growth momentum in the first 11 months of the year amid signs of resilient demand. During the Jan.-Nov. period, total imports and exports of the country expanded 22 percent year on year to 35.39 trillion yuan (about 5.55 trillion U.S. dollars), official data showed.
The country's consumption has always been a strong force to push recovery. According to data from China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the contribution of consumption to economic growth has rebounded quarter by quarter this year, from 53.5 percent in the first quarter to 77 percent in the second quarter and then to 78 percent in the third quarter.
"This year, the consumer market has withstood the shocks and tests of the epidemic, extreme weather in some parts of China and changes in the international environment, and has fully established a recovery trend. Consumption has returned to the role of the leading driver of economic growth, demonstrating strong resilience," said Wang Wei with the Development Research Center of China's State Council.
With the stable economic recovery, progress has also been made in China's economic restructuring, transformation and upgrading.
"The year of 2021 has seen accelerated upgrading in the digital economy, pharmaceutical manufacturing, strategic emerging industries, new energy and green transformation, which are clear highlights of China's economy in 2021," said Li Xuesong, director of the Institute of Quantitative and Technological Economics of CASS.
A staff member arranges toys for display at a cultural and tourism industrial park in Chenghai District of Shantou City, south China's Guangdong Province, Dec. 1, 2021. (Xinhua/Deng Hua)
-- Pressure and perseverance
Many think tanks have the same perception of China's economic outlook that despite multiple challenges and risks ahead, the fundamentals sustaining China's long-term and positive economic performance remain unchanged.
Having considered the still-raging global pandemic, CASS pointed out in its blue book that China's economy is expected to grow by about 5.3 percent in 2022, with an average annual growth of 5.2 percent in the three years from 2020 to 2022, slightly higher than the figure of 5.1 percent from 2020 to 2021.
Sun Xuegong, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research, noted that China may face larger short-term economic downward pressure next year as risk factors continue to accumulate, but with solid foundation, China's economy will prove itself with continuous recovery.
Some securities firms made rosier projections for next year, with higher economic growth of about 5.4 percent.
Zhu Jianfang, chief economist with CITIC Securities, commended that China's far-sighted policies and measures to beef up long-term economic growth, including that of promoting common prosperity and pursuing carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, noting that the fast control of COVID-19 has enabled the country to take such strategic steps.
Domestic demand will stay as the main driving force for economic growth. Wang Wei expected that the fundamentals sustaining China's consumption growth and the overall momentum of consumption upgrading will not change next year or throughout the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025).
"In 2022, total retail sales of consumer goods are expected to grow by 6.5 percent to 7.1 percent year on year, further strengthening the role of consumption in driving economic growth," said Wang Wei.
-- Confidence in China
While downgrading their forecasts for global economic growth, international organizations have shown confidence in China's economic growth in 2022.
The latest forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank for China's GDP growth in 2022 are 5.6 percent and 5.4 percent, respectively, 0.7 and 1 percentage point higher than the global growth forecast.
Stefan Kreuzkamp, chief investment officer at DWS, Deutsche Bank's asset management arm, estimated that China will focus more on quality rather than quantity of economic growth, with the country's economy growing at around 5.3 percent next year thanks to a series of reform measures.
John Woods, chief investment officer for Asia Pacific at Credit Suisse, made optimistic projection that China's economy is to grow at 6.1 percent next year.
In terms of policy, more fiscal support will be seen, thus fueling infrastructure investment next year, said Wang Tao, head of Asia economics of UBS Investment Bank, adding that consumption is expected to rebound as the pandemic prevention and control continues to improve.
(Edited by Li Shimeng with Xinhua Silk Road, lishimeng@xinhua.org)
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