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Economy

Impact of epidemic on China's economy won't last long: analysts

February 13, 2020


Abstract : The impacts of the novel coronavirus epidemic on China's economy will be temporary, and the fundamentals of China's long-term and high-quality economic growth have not been changed, analysts say.

BEIJING, Feb. 13 (Xinhua) -- The impacts of the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic on China's economy will be temporary, and the fundamentals of China's long-term and high-quality economic growth have not been changed, analysts said.

As long as the novel coronavirus epidemic is effectively controlled, China's economy will soon be repaired, said Wang Yupeng, chief macro-researcher of Dongxing Securities.

China will see a surge in the economy in the second quarter if the virus is brought under control by February, said Feng Gangyong, an analyst with Guangzheng Hang Seng, a securities investment consulting company, adding that the epidemic would have small impact on China’s economic growth.

Wang stressed that there is only a short-term shock. China's economy has already stepped into the stage of high-quality development and speedy transformation. China's total economic demand is expected to stabilize and recover in 2020.

China's consumption will likely bottom out this year. There will be a recovery cycle of the completion of real estate projects, and the consumption of furniture, household appliances, construction and decoration materials are expected to rebound.

China's auto manufacturing and sales will gradually recover in the second quarter if the epidemic is controlled. Sales of passenger cars will fall by 17 percent to 20 percent in the first quarter before rebounding to around 15 percent growth in the second quarter as pent-up demand unleashes, according to an analysis by CITIC Securities.

Moreover, China's investment cycle is expected to bounce in 2020. China’s infrastructure projects will resume in late February as transportation returns to normal, said Li Chao, chief macro-researcher of Huatai Securities. Li estimated that the growth rate of infrastructure investment for the whole year could be around 10 percent.

Despite the outbreak of the novel coronavirus, China's competitive advantages in attracting foreign investment remains unchanged, said Gao Feng, the spokesman of the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, noting Beijing has also been devoting its efforts to help trade-related enterprises.

Besides, the external demand remains stable, because global central banks have been easing monetary policies since last year. The newly signed China-U.S. phase-one trade deal will reduce the uncertainty that has impeded global economic growth.

(Contributed by Wu Congsi, Ding Yawen; edited by Yang Qi)

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Keyword: China's economy NCP

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