InfoQuest, (June 04, 2019) -- Thailand's consumer price index (CPI) stood at 103.31, rising 1.15 percent year on year in May. This figure was up 0.48 percent from April 2019. The overall inflation rate in the first five months of this year rose by 0.92 percent, according to the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO) under the Ministry of Commerce.
The core CPI was 102.50 in May 2019, up 0.54 percent year-on-year and 0.10 percent from April 2019. The overall core inflation rate in the first five months of this year increased by 0.60 percent.
The index of food and non-alcoholic beverages registered 105.06, up 2.83 percent year-on -year, and up 1.07 percent from April 2019. The index of other consumer products which are not included in the food and non-alcoholic beverage product category was 102.34, up 0.20 percent year-on-year, and up 0.15 percent from April 2019.
Ms. Pimchanok Wonpornporn, director general of the TPSO, revealed that the general CPI in May 2019 rose 1.15 percent year on year, and the growth of inflation rate has slowed. The rise in inflation rate in May was mainly due to drought and seasonal fluctuations, which led to a decline in the production of a wide range of agricultural products, thus resulting in continued increases in fresh food prices. Slump in energy prices, especially fuel prices affected by the declining pricing trend in world market, is the main factor that slowed the increase of inflation rate. In addition, demand indexes such as household income and expenditure has also presented a slowing trend.
In May, according to the CPI survey covering 422 product categories, it was found that 233 important items, including pork, rice, scallions and fresh chili peppers, had experienced price increases. At the same time, 98 categories have seen a decline in price, including fruit and diesel, and the prices of other 91 items have remained stable.
The Director General of the TPSO noted that overall the prices of goods and services in Thailand remain stable, keeping within 1-4 percent. This figure was projected by the government for the medium-term monetary policy in 2019, and consistent with the demand and supply indexes.
Projecting the inflation trend in the second half of the year, the TPSO said the price of fresh food products will go up. The price of fresh fruit and vegetables decreased due to the long rainy season in the previous year, which made the price base of the previous year remain at a low level, but the price of fresh fruit and vegetables showed an upward trend this year. With regard to fuel prices, if oil price didn’t experience fluctuations amid the changes in global market, fuel prices would keep declining in the second half of this year. Therefore, it can be seen that fuel price inflation rate will not have significant effect on inflation rate for the remaining six months of this year.
In brief, the Ministry of Commerce will revise the figure of the nominal inflation for 2019 when the data of inflation rate for June is obtained, which is expected to be a little higher than the previous one (1.2 percent), but the real inflation rate is expected to remain unchanged in the range of 0.7-1.7 percent this year.
"Not until that we get the data of inflation rate for the first half of this year will we adjust the nominal inflation rate for the whole year. The revised figure is expected to be slightly higher than the previous 1.2 percent. As for the concerned question whether this figure will reach 1.5 percent or not, we do not know for sure at present. However, the real inflation rate will remain within 0.7-1.7 percent," said Ms. Pimchanok.
Source: InfoQuest, by Kasamarporn Kittisamphan/ Nisarat / Rachada, translated by Xinhua Silk Road
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