Sace published the 2019 risk map. In spite of the economic slowdown, Beijing remains among the reference markets. Good news also for Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Czech Republic and Colombia. Among the six factors of uncertainty, Brexit non-agreement and fears about US stock market.
Despite the slowdown that is going through, China remains among the best destinations in terms of opportunities risks for Italian exports. Simest reports Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Czech Republic and Colombia, together with China, in the last edition of the risk map filled out by Sace. Among the "promising" territories of the current year will also be Brazil, India, Indonesia and Vietnam. These countries have a medium-high risk profile but are also "emerging markets destined to be paramount in the near future". In this scenario, another place is occupied by Russia, which confirms its role as a strategic market and from which analysts of the credit insurance company and export support of the Cdp group are awaiting constant signs of progress. An eye must be kept on Morocco, Senegal and Kenya, too. Even Turkey preserves its appeal in a long-term perspective, despite the recent difficulties and in any case with the necessary precautions.
"Export is the main driver of our economy and a strategic choice for Italian companies. For those operating in international markets, knowledge of risks is essential, but it would only be a partial practice if not accompanied by an adequate analysis of the opportunities. If in general emerging markets are more vulnerable to possible external shocks, nevertheless some are strategic destinations for our exports ", explained the president of Sace Beniamino Quintieri,
There are six risk factors for the current year after the global growth recorded a rate of 3.7% in 2018. 2019 could be affected by economic turmoil from emerging markets and from great fears concerning the US economy. "The possibility of a recession to occur already in the current year is unlikely to happen, while an economic slowdown is expected. There is still great uncertainty about protectionism, as the expectations on the current truce in the war of duties is highly dependent on the unpredictability of the players involved," explains Sace.
Also from a financial point of view, Washington is raising fears in the markets. "An overly restrictive policy implemented by the Fed would not only spark tensions on Wall Street prices, but it could again have an impact on emerging markets, with real effects for our exporting companies. Any further capital outflows from emerging markets would trigger interest rate increases and a contraction of credit granted to local businesses, which would have fewer opportunities to invest. Furthermore, the currencies of these countries would depreciate, causing adverse effects on imports of our products and also causing an increase in non-payment risk. The cases of Argentina and Turkey in 2018 were emblematic, as our exports decreased by around 10%". In the background "the global debt burden remains, rising to 244 thousand billion dollars in the third quarter of 2018 (318.2% of world GDP)".
Finally, another risk is linked to the consequences of introducing the Brexit without reaching an agreement between London and Brussels to manage the exit from the European Union. Slovenia, Iceland, Greece, Austria, Poland and Croatia are among the countries to see improvements especially on the banking sector, due to the decrease of sovereign risk. On the other hand, Turkey, Argentina, Oman and Bahrain are experiencing a worsening. "In India and Indonesia the risks related to the depreciation of currencies and the pressure on foreign exchange reserves are mitigated by solid economic fundamentals. The situation is similar in Brazil, where the risk-uncertainty associated with the new political course is mitigated by considerable foreign exchange reserves, accounting for a stable financial system that is curbing debt", reported Sace.
As for political risks, the situation is also worsening in Ukraine, Tanzania, Tunisia and Iran. Mongolia, Ghana, Bolivia and Egypt, in contrast, have made progress.
(Source:Class Editori)
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