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China's foreign trade to keep improving month by month, experts

July 07, 2020


Abstract : China's foreign trade will continue to improve month by month, reported Securities Daily Monday quoting experts.

BEIJING, July 7 (Xinhua) --China's foreign trade will continue to improve month by month, reported Securities Daily Monday quoting experts.

Data from China's General Administration of Customs show that in May this year, the country's exports grew by -3.3 percent in U.S. dollars and by 1.4 percent in renminbi year on year, while its imports by -16.7 percent in U.S. dollars and by -12.7 percent in renminbi year on year.

Many experts have expected an improvement in China's exports and imports in June.

The exports in June is likely to increase by 3 percent in renminbi and by -3 percent in U.S. dollars year on year, said Li Chao, chief economist with Zheshang Securities (601878.SH), a Chinese securities firm headquartered in Hangzhou, provincial capital of east China's Zhejiang Province.

According to Li, China's exports would be driven by the robust exports of epidemic prevention and control supplies, the expectation of a rebound in overseas economic growth, and China's leading economic recovery.

China's exports in June might grow by -0.2 percent in U.S. dollars, estimated Zhang Yu, chief macro analyst with Hua Chuang Securities, a Chinese securities firm based in Guiyang, provincial capital of southwest China's Guizhou Province.

According to Zhang, several clear signs in June indicate that the overseas economy is bouncing back rapidly.

For instance, Zhang noted, the PMIs (Purchasing Managers' Indexs) of France and the UK rebounded above the threshold in June, and the export growth decline of the Republic of Korea narrowed sharply in June.

Besides, the textile and clothing export decline of Vietnam in June also narrowed slightly which may indicate that China's domestic clothing exports are also about to bottom out, Zhang said.

Zhang estimated that China's imports in June might rise by -11.6 percent in U.S. dollars year on year.

Li Chao estimated that China's imports in June might rise by -12 percent in renminbi and by -15 percent in U.S. dollars year on year.

The impeded overseas supply will continue to block China's imports in the short run, noted Li.

Given the staged rebound in overseas demand driven by the work and production resumption worldwide, China's exports in June is expected to grow by -2 percent in U.S. dollars, and imports by about -10 percent in U.S. dollars, according to TF Securities, a Chinese securities firm based in Wuhan, provincial capital of central China's Hubei Province.

China's foreign trade in the second quarter of this year has presented a trend of improvement month by month, said Tao Jin, a senior researcher with the Suning Institute of Finance.

The restart of the overseas economy just beginning in June might lead to a slight rebound in China's exports and imports in June, as well as the increase of China's manufacturing imports, noted Tao.

The accelerated exports of the epidemic prevention and control materials and China's leading economic recovery can support the increase of China's foreign trade share in the world, and the trade surplus is likely to expand, creating a positive pull for China's GDP, according to Tao. (Edited by Gu Shanshan with Xinhua Silk Road, gushanshan.1987@163.com)

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Keyword: China's foreign trade

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