Xinhua Silk Road - Belt and Road Portal, China's silk road economic belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road Website Xinhua Silk Road - Belt and Road Portal, China's silk road economic belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road Website
Subscribe CustomBlackClose

Belt & Road Weekly Subscription Form

download_pop

Research ReportCustomBlackClose

The full edition of the report is available at Xinhua Silk Road Database. You can click the “Table of Content” to have a general understanding of it.

Click on the button below to create your account and get immediate access to thousands of articles.

Start a Free Trial

Xinhua Credit
Economy

China likely to see faster economic recovery in H2 of 2020, institutions

June 24, 2020


Abstract : China's economy is likely to revive in the second half of this year, with growth rate expected to return to the pre-epidemic level, according to the economic forecast released by institutions recently.

BEIJING, June 24 (Xinhua) -- China's economy is likely to revive in the second half of this year, with growth rate expected to return to the pre-epidemic level. 

Institutions widely held that the improvement of domestic demand will provide a driving force for the steady recovery of economy. The rebound of investment and consumption will make joint contribution as well.

--- Recovery amid rebound of investment and consumption

Institutions widely estimated that investment and consumption in China will return to positive growth in the second half of the year. 

Zhu Jianfang, chief economist of CITIC Securities, said that investment in property and infrastructure will shore up economic growth. Fixed-asset investment growth may grow 5.6 percent on year for the whole 2020. Consumption will also show significant recovery in the third quarter and is likely to achieve positive growth this year.

According to institutions, infrastructure investment, which remains the key force to stabilize investment, is expected to achieve double-digit growth throughout the year. The scale of new infrastructure investment is likely to exceed one trillion yuan. The country's continued efforts to provide financial support for small, medium and micro-sized enterprises will help boost manufacturing investment.

As the impacts of the epidemic continue to diminish since May ,the consumption market has been heating up, with shopping malls, restaurants and automobile stores seeing more and more customers. 

Tang Jianwei, chief researcher with the Bank of Communications, predicted that China's consumption will be on a mild recovery path as COVID-19 wanes in the second half of 2020.

--- Economy growth likely to rebound

China's GDP contracted 6.8 percent year on year in the first quarter amid the COVID-19 impact. However, experts forecast that the economy may see positive growth in the second quarter and rebound significantly in the third and fourth quarters. 

Zhang Liqun, a researcher with the Development Research Center under the State Council, said that Chinese economy will enter a faster recovery track supported by the expansion of domestic demand. It is expected that the GDP will expand over 8 percent year on year in the third and fourth quarters of this year, with the annual economic growth surpassing 4 percent.

Assuming that there is no large-scale rebound in the epidemic, global economy will gradually recover in the second half of the year. Under the circumstances, China's economic growth will rebound sharply, rising about 6 percent on year in the fourth quarter, said Peng Wensheng, chief economist with the China International Capital Corporation (CICC).

--- A package of policies to ensure economic stability

Recently, multiple ministries announced targeted measures to support enterprises and ensure stable job creation, in a bid to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 and strive to achieve the goals of economic and social development.

Tang Jianwei noted that the People's Bank of China is likely to restore to interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts in the second half of the year. The rediscount and relending scale for small, medium and micro enterprises is expected to expand further. (Edited by Zhang Yuan with Xinhua Silk Road, zhangyuan11@xinhua.org)

Scan the QR code and push it to your mobile phone

Keyword: investment consumption economy

Write to Us belt & road login close

Do you want to be a contributor to Xinhua Silk Road and tell us your Belt & Road story? Send your articles to [email protected] and share your stories with more people.

Click on the button below to create your account and get im http://img.silkroad.news.cn/templates/silkroad/en2017te access to thousands of articles.

Start a Free Trial

Ask Us A Question belt & road login close

If you have any questions, please enter them in the box below.

Reload

Write to Us belt & road login close

Do you want to be a contributor to Xinhua Silk Road and tell us your Belt & Road story? Send your articles to silkroadweekly@xinhua.org and share your stories with more people.

Click on the button below to create your account and get im http://img.silkroad.news.cn/templates/silkroad/en2017te access to thousands of articles.

Start a Free Trial