InfoQuest (March 27, 2019) -- Mr. Warotai Kosolpistkul, fiscal policy adviser to the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO), revealed the economic conditions of Thailand in February 2019. According to him, Thai economy showed signs of stability, and VAT collection showed slight drop, which reflected the slowdown of private investment; but the sales of passenger cars maintained growth.
The sustained increase of commercial vehicle sales and real estate transaction tax showed sound investment in private sector. Yet on supply side, the supply of cement and steel dropped slightly. As the number of Chinese tourists decreased, the number of foreign tourists increased slowly. The increase of MPI also slowed down.
Agricultural production index and farmers' income also grew together with the positive growth of agricultural product prices during the past 22 months.Besides, industrial sentiment index peaked during the past 73 months. Both internal and external economy was in a stable threshold.
In February 2019, economic indicators in private consumption showed slight slowdown, which was reflected in added-value tax, with fixed priceadded-value tax reducing 0.5 percent each year. Meanwhile, the 9.2 percent annual increase of passenger car sales showed that durable consumer goods still maintained growth. At the same time, the number of newly registered motorbike also increased, up 0.4 percent year on year.
Because of the atmosphere of the 2019 Thai general election, the ease of China-US trade frictions, the recovery of Chinese tourists visiting Thailand, and the increased purchasing power caused by price rise of agricultural products, consumers showed more confidence in the overall economy, with a confidence index of 69.0.
In February 2019, economic indicators in private consumption showed growth in engineering machinery sector. That can be seen from the 9.0 percent annual increase rate of commercial vehicle sales, which has witnessed 20 consecutive months of increase. Among which, the sales increase of 1-ton pick-up truck was as high as 10.1 percent. Meanwhile, cement sales at home shrank 3.0 percent year on year, showing investment slowdown in construction industry. Real estate transaction tax increased 7.4 percent year on year, and business tax collected by the Land Department increased 14.8 percent each year. Meanwhile, the price index of building materials has dropped slightly, namely an annual decrease rate of 0.1 percent. That was mainly caused by the decrease of the price index of steel, steel products, and sanitary ware.
Because of special factors, in February 2019, foreign demand for export products increased. Among which, the value of commodity export was 21.6 billion U.S. dollars, up 5.9 percent year on year. If products related to petroleum, gold, and military goods are deducted, we will find that export value slowed down continuously, with a decrease rate of 4.9 percent. Anyway, the value of goods exported to US and the five ASEAN countries continued to increase. The value of import goods was 17.5 billion U.S. dollars, decreasing 10.0 percent year on year. Trade surplus was 4 billion U.S. dollars.
In February 2019, the supply index of Thai economy was buoyed by agriculture sector. Meanwhile, international tourism remained stable and industry sector slowed down slightly. Among which, agricultural production index has realized a yearly increase rate of 3.2 percent. That includes: 3.8 percent increase of agricultural goods, 1.6 percent increase of animal husbandry, and 0.8 decrease of fishery.
The number of foreign tourists visiting Thailand reached to 3.57 million. Because of the 12.3 percent annual decrease in the number of Chinese tourists, the increase rate of total tourist number has maintained a yearly 0.2 percent. The numbers of tourists from other countries maintained growth, including Malaysia, Korea, and Japan. Tourism revenue from foreign tourists reached to 191.854 billion baht, with a slight annual decrease rate of 0.8 percent.
MPI stood at 105.2, dropping 1.6 percent. Industrial sentiment index from Thai Industrial Standards Institute (TISI) was 95.6, somewhat higher than that of last month thanks to greater confidence in domestic demand. In February 2019, the stability of domestic economy was within a sound threshold, and external economy was also stable. The overall inflation rate was low, 0.7 percent per year. Meanwhile, annual basic inflation rate was 0.6 percent.
Unemployment rate (the proportion of the unemployed in total larbor force) was 0.8 percent. In late January of 2019, public debt accounted for 41.7 percent of GDP, within the upper limit of 60.0 percent of GDP stipulated by financial discipline framework. External conditions were still stable, capable of bearing risks brought by global economic fluctuation. That is because foreign exchange reserves in late February of 2019 stood at a high level, with an amount of 212.5 billion U.S. dollars.
Source: InfoQuest, by Khalarit/Rachada, translated by Xinhua Silk Road
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