The year 2023 marks the tenth anniversary of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). BRI is the most expansive project for connectivity in human history — not just in South Asia, but in all of Asia and beyond.
BRI is the most holistic effort unveiled by any country in pursuit of connectivity and cooperation. It aims to revive the ancient silk routes, both on-land and maritime, that connected the three continents. It envisions creation of 21st century connectivity of multiple kinds — infrastructure connectivity; energy, industry and supply-chain connectivity; trade connectivity; financial connectivity; social development connectivity; policy connectivity; and people-to-people connectivity.
In the past ten years, BRI has made significant progress. In any new initiative of this scale, there are bound to be some unexpected problems and setbacks, which necessitate periodic review and course correction. Nevertheless, what is doubtless is that BRI has significantly improved infrastructure in several developing countries in Asia and Africa. I witnessed one such success story myself during my recent visit to Kenya. The expressway from the airport to the city centre in Nairobi, built by China, has reduced travel time from nearly 40 minutes to just six. People of Kenya were also highly appreciative of the modern railway line from Nairobi to Mombasa, built under BRI.
There are similar success stories of BRI in Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Greece and elsewhere. An objective assessment of this initiative would show that it has made four positive contributions.
First, BRI has promoted infrastructure development and economic growth in partner countries. Second, it has begun a new paradigm of regional cooperation, whose full benefits will be seen after some years. Third, at a time when the USA and other western economies have turned their backs on globalisation, BRI has given a push to a new kind of re-globalisation which is no longer dominated by, or dependent on, the West. Fourth, in recent years, China through BRI is trying to promote cooperation in green infrastructure, green energy and green finance.
India's non-participation in BRI
In the context of South Asia, the Belt and Road Initiative has encountered serious problems because of India's non-participation. As a result, the loser is both India as well as other countries in South Asia. It is the most populous region in the world with a combined population of around 1.8 billion. Yet, it has the largest number of poor people. Large parts of South Asia are underdeveloped due to severe lack of inter-connectedness and resultant absence of regional cooperation.
Since India and the rest of South Asia are not properly inter-connected, the region's connectivity with China has also lagged behind. China in recent years has taken some important steps to improve connectivity with Pakistan, Nepal, Myanmar and Sri Lanka. These steps will undoubtedly benefit the economies of these countries.
Therefore, on the occasion of the commemoration of the tenth anniversary of the Belt and Road Initiative, the leaders of India, China, Pakistan and other countries in South Asia should consider the bold new thinking, along with a firm commitment to regional connectivity and cooperation.
Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) Corridor should be built soon
At present there are two major connectivity projects in South Asia, which, if implemented, will change the destiny of the region. They also offer an opportunity to re-imagine the progress of the Belt and Road Initiative in the region in the next decade. The first is the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project under BRI, work on which has already begun full-swing. The second is the BCIM (Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar) Corridor, which predates BRI. It was envisioned nearly two decades ago, but it has not yet moved much beyond the conceptual stage.
The BCIM region is one of the richest in the world in terms of natural, mineral and human resources. It covers nearly 1/10 the world's total area, about 7.5 percent of the global GDP (most of it contributed by China). Historically, this region has constituted a common geography in South and South-East Asia with close socio-economic, racial, cultural and spiritual interactions.
However, today the BCIM region, barring southern China, is largely underdeveloped. Similarly, relative to the neighbouring ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations), region – which itself is a good demonstration of the benefits of regional cooperation – the BCIM region is far behind in development.
The win-win benefits of the BCIM Corridor to India and other partner countries are self-evident. That India is one of the fastest growing economies in the world is widely acknowledged. Along with China, India is one of the main engines of the global economy. However, regional imbalances within India continue to be a serious problem. In particular, the northern, eastern and north-eastern states in India are far less developed than the western, north-western and southern states. Regional disparity in India is most evident in the relative backwardness of West Bengal, Bihar, eastern Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Sikkim and the seven north-eastern states. One of the main reasons for their backwardness is that their economies are disconnected from countries to India's eastern neighbourhood — Bangladesh, Myanmar, Bhutan, China and members of ASEAN.
India faces another connectivity problem. Its north-eastern region is geographically isolated from the rest of India. The only land connectivity between the rest of India and India's north-eastern states is the so-called "Chicken's Neck Corridor" in the north of West Bengal, which is only 23 km wide.
Here is a stark fact. Agartala, the capital of Tripura, which is one of India's "Seven Sisters" in the north east, is 1,650 km from Kolkata and 2,637 km from New Delhi, if one travels through the Chicken's Neck. In contrast, the distance between Agartala and Kolkata through Bangladesh is just about 350 km. Therefore, direct land route between India's north-eastern states and the rest of India, through Bangladesh, will greatly reduce the costs of transport for Indian businesses.
Time to expand CPEC by bringing in India and Afghanistan
India will also benefit immensely by joining the 3,000-km-long China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which links Kashgar in China's Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region with Gwadar port in Balochistan province of Pakistan. This project has come as a big boon to Pakistan. However, its full potential for enhancing regional connectivity and cooperation has remained untapped. CPEC needs to be extended into Afghanistan and India. If that happens, it should be renamed as CPAIEC (China-Pakistan-Afghanistan-India Economic Corridor). Going forward, this can also be extended to Iran and countries in Central Asia and Eurasia.
CPAIEC will also connect the remaining stretches of the Indo-Pak land and maritime border in Punjab, Sindh, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Maharashtra through modern transport and trade connectivities, both land- and sea-based. Hence, CPAIEC's potential benefits are much more than economic in nature.
Once countries begin to be linked with modern infrastructure, the logic of connectivity and cooperation presents almost unlimited possibilities and opportunities for future expansion. Hence, it is possible to envisage linking CPAIEC on the western side of India with BCIM on the eastern side. This will create a seamless K-K-K link — from Kunming in China to Kolkata in India to Kabul in Afghanistan. The linking of BCIM and CPAIEC will thus weave a garland of connectivity and cooperation around the large landmass of South Asia.
Similarly when the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline (which is a part of CPEC) is extended into India, it will immensely benefit the energy security of both India and Pakistan. CPAIEC will promote energy security in the region in yet another way — it will give a boost to the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline, a project which has remained unimplemented for a long time. (Contributed by Sudheendra Kulkarni)
The views and opinions don't necessarily state or reflect those of Xinhua Silk Road.
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