Aerial photo taken on March 2, 2022 shows a view of the container terminal of Qinzhou Port in south China's Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. (Xinhua)
BEIJING, July 28 (Xinhua) -- China's foreign trade continued recovering in the first half of 2022, and is carrying on the positive trend into July with picking up port throughput showed by high-frequency data, reported China Securities Journal Monday.
Experts believe that China's export strength, as well as its wide and resilient industrial chain, can meet the diverse needs of different economies. Exports are expected to maintain a high prosperity level in the second half of the year(H2).
--Foreign trade remains stable since July
After China's exports achieved double-digit year-on-year growth in the first half of 2022, foreign trade volume has remained stable since July, and the port throughput is also seeing rebounds.
In mid-July, the cargo throughput of key coastal hub ports monitored by the China Ports Association increased by 4.3 percent year on year. The cargo throughput of foreign trade increased by 5.9 percent year on year, 4.8 percentage points higher than the previous monitoring period.
In the same period, the eight main coastal hub ports in China saw their total container throughput increased by 6.1 percent year on year with foreign trade business surging 7.3 percent year on year.
Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of Industrial Bank, noted that the resilience of China's foreign trade is rooted in the comparative advantage of its industrial chain. With its industrial upgrading and high-quality development, China's foreign trade has enhanced its ability to cope with various risks and challenges, enabling it to meet the diverse needs of different economies at different times, he said.
In the early stage of the pandemic, anti-pandemic materials and "stay-at-home economy" necessities were the main drivers of China's export. As the manufacturing industry in other economies gradually recovered, the demand for intermediate goods and capital goods kept growing, becoming the new engine for China's export growth, said Lu.
--RCEP boosts foreign trade
The RCEP, which came into force in January of 2022, also boosted the growing trend of China’s foreign trade.
In the first half of this year, China's imports and exports to ASEAN countries reached 2.95 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.6 percent year on year, Customs data showed.
Azlimi Zakaria, Consul General of Consulate General of Malaysia in Nanning, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, noted that China and Malaysia have already built a sound foundation for cooperation in cross-border e-commerce and supporting industries. Since this year, RCEP has boosted the confidence of people in all countries in the region.
The electric-vehicle industry and other high-tech fields will be at the front and center of bilateral cooperation in the next stage, and the industrial chain cooperation between the two sides in these aspects is promising, he added.
--Exports of consumer goods expected to be new highlights
Industry insiders noted that there are still many favorable conditions for China's foreign trade to maintain stable growth momentum and improve quality in the next stage, and the exports of consumer goods related to social activities and travel may become a new highlight.
The social and travel needs will continue to be released in the wake of the easing of anti-pandemic measures in Europe and the United States. Currently, the production in ASEAN countries keeps recovering, and the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of manufacturing industries in countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand are all above the 50-mark threshold, benefiting China's exports of related upstream products, said Chen Zhiyi, a macro analyst at Orient Securities.
In terms of commodities, intermediate goods such as mechanical and electrical engineering components and capital goods, which complement ASEAN's export category, as well as social activities- and travel-related consumer goods exported to the United States, are expected to become the highlights of China's exports in the second half of the year, he added.
in June, China saw relatively large exports of consumer goods, including shoes, bags, toys, automobiles and clothing. At present, the consumption demand in the United States is relatively strong. Breaking down the inventory-to-sales ratios of U.S. wholesalers in different sectors, the ratios in automobiles, auto parts and clothing are relatively low. Looking forward, it is expected that China's exports of these goods will still be better than other sectors, said Cheng Qiang, chief macro analyst of CITIC Securities.
Due to the base effect, China’s year-on-year growth rate of exports in July is expected to further go up, according to Dong Qi, chief macro analyst of Guotai Junan Securities.
(Edited by Gao Jingyan with Xinhua Silk Road, gaojingyan@xinhua.org)
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