InfoQuest (August 07, 2019) -- Mr. Pridi Daochai, chairman of Thai Bankers' Association and Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industries and Banking (JSCCIB), revealed that the assessment of JSCCIB found that in the first half of 2019, export, domestic export, and other economic indicators all showed a sign of decline; most economic indicators will show down in the second half of the year, and Thai economic growth in the second half of 2019 will be lower than the 2.8 percent growth rate in the first half of the year.
In the second half of this year, Thai economy will still face many challenges. Particularly, the US plans to impose an additional tariff of 10 percent on Chinese exports worth 300 billion U.S. dollars from September 1, 2019, while China has depreciated the exchange rate of renminbi to 7 yuan/U.S. dollar, the lowest level since 11 years ago. That's why the US listed China as among currency manipulators. It is expected that the US will take extra measures, which will lead to more serious consequences of the trade war. Besides, the UK might realize a no-deal Brexit on October 31 this year.
"All these factors have imposed extra pressure on global economy, which has showed a sign of slowdown; plus, the US dollar fluctuations will lead to fluctuations and probable appreciation of baht. All these factors are to the disadvantage of the recovery of Thai export," said the chairman of JSCCIB.
From the beginning of this year to August 6, 2019, baht has appreciated by 5.9 percent against US dollar, the largest margin of appreciation compared with other currencies.
Judging from the above-mentioned international landscape, Thai economic growth has to rely on domestic expenditure, particularly short-term measures of government, including drought-relief efforts and restoring the confidence of private sector, noted Mr. Pridi.
"JSCCIB will continue to follow closely domestic and foreign situations to precisely assess the trend of Thai economic indicators. Currently, we still maintain the pre-set expectations of Thai economic growth, export growth rate, and inflation rate target in 2019," said Mr. Pridi.
JSCCIB reckons that Thai economic growth rate will be 2.9 to 3.3 percent, export growth rate -1 to 1 percent, and inflation rate 0.8 to 1.2 percent.
Source: InfoQuest, by Tanit Tongnok / Kasamarporn / Rachada, translated by Xinhua Silk Road
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