InfoQuest (September 4, 2019) -- Mr. Somkiat Kimawa, manager assistant of Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC), revealed that the Research and Innovation Development Center of BAAC had compiled the forecast report for prices of agricultural products in September 2019.
According to the report, the agricultural products whose prices will rise include rice (moisture content is 15 percent), and the price is expected to be 7,975-8,081 baht/ton, up 1.15-2.50 percent from last month. This is mainly because major rice areas, such as Suphanburi, Phitsanulok and Phichit, are still affected by drought, resulting in reduced rice supplies.
The price of jasmine rice is expected to record 16,000-16,109 baht per ton, up 0.23-0.91 percent from the previous month, which is due to the recent dry weather that has affected the production. However, the drought in the main jasmine rice producing areas in the Northeast Region, such as Ubon and Roi Et, has been alleviated, so the price of jasmine rice will only increase slightly.
The price of long-grain glutinous rice is expected to be 13,009-13,529 baht/ton, up 1.90-5.98 percent from last month. The main reason is that the drought led to a decline in glutinous rice production. Other reasons include that the inventory is reducing while the harvest season has not come yet. As a result, mills, merchants of bagged rice and rice exporters buy large quantities of glutinous rice to build up stocks.
Raw sugar futures on ICE will record 12.16-12.63 cents/pound (8.22-8.54 baht/kilogram), an increase of 4.00-7.00 percent over the previous month, which is largely because hedge funds and speculators have been buying up raw sugar, causing the prices of raw sugar to rise. Brazil Conab has cut its 209/2020 sugar production forecast by 6.7 percent or 31.8 million tons, compared with a previous forecast of 34.1 million tons. As a result, global sugar production is expected to decline.
Cassava prices are predicted to be 1.72-1.77 baht/kilogram, up 1.17-4.11 percent from last month, which is mainly due to reduced production and an outbreak of cassava mosaic disease (CMD).
Palm prices are expected to reach 2.35-2.43 baht/kilogram, an increase of 1.73-5.19 percent over last month. This is mainly due to the palm decline in the market in September, coupled with the government's policy of accelerating palm inventory consumption, which contribute to the rising palm prices.
Agricultural products that will see price declines include feed corn (water content does not exceed 14.5 percent), and its price is estimated to be pegged at 7.17-7.28 baht/kilogram, a decrease of 0.50-2.00 percent from the previous month. This decline is a result of the increased production appearing in the market during the first harvest season, and the overall quality deterioration of the newly-harvested feed corns as the water content is high caused by rising precipitation recently.
The price of natural rubber sheet is forecast to be 36.53-37.35 baht/kilogram, which drops by 3.98-6.09 percent from last month. The major factors contributing to the decline include the trade war between China and the United States, the global economic slowdown, the surging Thai baht, and downward prices of crude oil. But the government's agricultural price guarantees, which subsidies rubber, will keep rubber prices from falling.
Pork prices are expected to be 68.50-69.20 baht/kilogram, down 0.25-1.25 percent from last month. This is mainly due to the fact that the amount of pork on the market is close to consumer demand, and the fear of the African Swine Fever (ASF) may cause some pig farmers to rush to sell their pigs, resulting in increased supply.
The price of white shrimps is estimated to be 137.50-140.50 baht/kilogram, a drop of 1.58-3.68 percent from last month. The decline is mainly due to pressure on prawn exports from the rising Thai baht and the production increase as the bad weather lead shrimp farmers to strengthen shrimping to reduce the risk of damage.
Source: InfoQuest, by Nisarat Wichiensri / Rachada, translated by Xinhua Silk Road
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